Question Tag: Stock valuation

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Rosa Kurablah Ltd (Kurablah) plans to invest in ordinary shares for a period of fifteen years, after which she will sell out, buy a lifetime room and board membership in a retirement home, and retire. She feels that Senchi Ltd (Senchi) is currently, but temporarily, undervalued by the market. Kurablah expects Senchi’s current earnings and dividend to double in the next fifteen years. Senchi’s last dividend was GH¢3, and its stock currently sells for GH¢35 a share.

Required:

i) If Kurablah requires a 12 percent return on her investment, will Senchi be a good buy for her?
(3 marks)

ii) What is the maximum that Kurablah could pay for Senchi and still earn her required 12 percent?
(2 marks)

iii) What might be the cause of such a market undervaluation?
(3 marks)

iv) Given Kurablah’s assumptions, what market capitalization rate for Senchi does the current price imply?

Dividend Growth Model – Will Senchi Be a Good Buy?
According to the Dividend Growth Model (DGM):

ii) Maximum Price Kurablah Could Pay
To achieve her required return of 12%, the maximum price Kurablah could pay for the stock is based on the DGM:
She could pay up to GH¢45 per share and still earn her required 12% return

iii) Causes of Market Undervaluation

  1. Market Perception: Investors may not recognize Senchi’s future growth potential, leading to undervaluation.
  2. Risk Factors: Investors could perceive higher risks in Senchi’s business, demanding a higher rate of return and resulting in a lower price.
  3. Temporary Market Conditions: Short-term market fluctuations or a general market recession could cause the stock to be undervalued temporarily.

(3 marks)

iv) Implied Market Capitalization Rate
The implied market capitalization rate is calculated as:

Oliso Ghana Ltd paid a dividend of GH¢120 per share two years ago. In the previous and current year, dividend grew by 10% per annum. Starting from next year, dividend is projected to grow by 15% for the next three years and then 10% for another three years and finally settling at 12% forever. The investors expect 20% returns.

Required:
i) Calculate the value of a share in cedis for Oliso Ghana Ltd. (8 marks)
ii) If an investor holds 1,500 shares of the company, what will be the total value in cedis? (2 marks)

i) Calculation of value of a share:

  • Dividend two years ago: GH¢120
  • Growth rate over the last 2 years: 10%
  • Current dividend level:

Dividend projections for the next 6 years:

Year Dividend Growth Rate DF @ 20% Present Value
1 167 15% 0.833 139.11
2 192 15% 0.694 133.25
3 221 15% 0.579 127.96
4 243 10% 0.482 117.12
5 267 10% 0.402 107.33
6 294 10% 0.335 98.49
Total PV of Dividends 723.26

Calculation of price at period :

Present value of price at period 6:
PV6=4,116×0.335=GH¢1,379

Total value today:
Total Value = 723.26 + 1,379 = GH¢2,102.26

ii) Value of 1,500 shares today: