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QT – Nov 2015 – L1 – Q7a – Probability

Explain five key decision-making terms including Maximax rule and Expected Monetary Value.

Explain the following terms in decision making:
(i) Maximax Rule
(ii) Maximin Rule
(iii) Expected Monetary Value
(iv) Payoff Table
(v) Expected Value of Perfect Information

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QT – Nov 2015 – L1 – Q7a – Probability

Explain five key decision-making terms including Maximax rule and Expected Monetary Value.

Explain the following terms in decision making:
(i) Maximax Rule
(ii) Maximin Rule
(iii) Expected Monetary Value
(iv) Payoff Table
(v) Expected Value of Perfect Information

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QT – Nov 2015 – L1 – Q2 – Probability

Construct a decision tree and calculate the expected monetary value for Jodoo Company Ltd’s expansion options.

Jodoo Company Ltd had a new, large order for its product and thinks this may herald an expansion of the market and thus its sales and profits. Jodoo Ltd could move the factory to a new and larger site (cost: GHS 1 million), expand the existing factory (cost: GHS 0.25 million), or meet the new order by overtime (cost: GHS 0.08 million).

Three likely sales increase scenarios were proposed:

  • 40% increase in sales with a probability of 0.2
  • 10% increase in sales with a probability of 0.6
  • 0% increase in sales with a probability of 0.2

The expected profits under each option are:

Sales Increase % New Factory (GHS million) Expanded Factory (GHS million) Overtime (GHS million)
40% 6 3.5 1.5
10% 2.5 2.5 1.5
0% 0 0 0

Required:
(i) Construct a decision tree to represent the various scenarios of expansion. (6 Marks)

(ii) Calculate the expected monetary value (EMV) of each node of your tree. (8 Marks)

(iii) Advise the company on how to react to this opportunity. (6 Marks)

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QT – Nov 2015 – L1 – Q2 – Probability

Construct a decision tree and calculate the expected monetary value for Jodoo Company Ltd’s expansion options.

Jodoo Company Ltd had a new, large order for its product and thinks this may herald an expansion of the market and thus its sales and profits. Jodoo Ltd could move the factory to a new and larger site (cost: GHS 1 million), expand the existing factory (cost: GHS 0.25 million), or meet the new order by overtime (cost: GHS 0.08 million).

Three likely sales increase scenarios were proposed:

  • 40% increase in sales with a probability of 0.2
  • 10% increase in sales with a probability of 0.6
  • 0% increase in sales with a probability of 0.2

The expected profits under each option are:

Sales Increase % New Factory (GHS million) Expanded Factory (GHS million) Overtime (GHS million)
40% 6 3.5 1.5
10% 2.5 2.5 1.5
0% 0 0 0

Required:
(i) Construct a decision tree to represent the various scenarios of expansion. (6 Marks)

(ii) Calculate the expected monetary value (EMV) of each node of your tree. (8 Marks)

(iii) Advise the company on how to react to this opportunity. (6 Marks)

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QT – Nov 2015 – L1 – Q7a – Probability

Explain five key decision-making terms including Maximax rule and Expected Monetary Value.

Explain the following terms in decision making:
(i) Maximax Rule
(ii) Maximin Rule
(iii) Expected Monetary Value
(iv) Payoff Table
(v) Expected Value of Perfect Information

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You're reporting an error for "QT – Nov 2015 – L1 – Q7a – Probability"

QT – Nov 2015 – L1 – Q7a – Probability

Explain five key decision-making terms including Maximax rule and Expected Monetary Value.

Explain the following terms in decision making:
(i) Maximax Rule
(ii) Maximin Rule
(iii) Expected Monetary Value
(iv) Payoff Table
(v) Expected Value of Perfect Information

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You're reporting an error for "QT – Nov 2015 – L1 – Q7a – Probability"

QT – Nov 2015 – L1 – Q2 – Probability

Construct a decision tree and calculate the expected monetary value for Jodoo Company Ltd’s expansion options.

Jodoo Company Ltd had a new, large order for its product and thinks this may herald an expansion of the market and thus its sales and profits. Jodoo Ltd could move the factory to a new and larger site (cost: GHS 1 million), expand the existing factory (cost: GHS 0.25 million), or meet the new order by overtime (cost: GHS 0.08 million).

Three likely sales increase scenarios were proposed:

  • 40% increase in sales with a probability of 0.2
  • 10% increase in sales with a probability of 0.6
  • 0% increase in sales with a probability of 0.2

The expected profits under each option are:

Sales Increase % New Factory (GHS million) Expanded Factory (GHS million) Overtime (GHS million)
40% 6 3.5 1.5
10% 2.5 2.5 1.5
0% 0 0 0

Required:
(i) Construct a decision tree to represent the various scenarios of expansion. (6 Marks)

(ii) Calculate the expected monetary value (EMV) of each node of your tree. (8 Marks)

(iii) Advise the company on how to react to this opportunity. (6 Marks)

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QT – Nov 2015 – L1 – Q2 – Probability

Construct a decision tree and calculate the expected monetary value for Jodoo Company Ltd’s expansion options.

Jodoo Company Ltd had a new, large order for its product and thinks this may herald an expansion of the market and thus its sales and profits. Jodoo Ltd could move the factory to a new and larger site (cost: GHS 1 million), expand the existing factory (cost: GHS 0.25 million), or meet the new order by overtime (cost: GHS 0.08 million).

Three likely sales increase scenarios were proposed:

  • 40% increase in sales with a probability of 0.2
  • 10% increase in sales with a probability of 0.6
  • 0% increase in sales with a probability of 0.2

The expected profits under each option are:

Sales Increase % New Factory (GHS million) Expanded Factory (GHS million) Overtime (GHS million)
40% 6 3.5 1.5
10% 2.5 2.5 1.5
0% 0 0 0

Required:
(i) Construct a decision tree to represent the various scenarios of expansion. (6 Marks)

(ii) Calculate the expected monetary value (EMV) of each node of your tree. (8 Marks)

(iii) Advise the company on how to react to this opportunity. (6 Marks)

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