- 6 Marks
Question
Question:
The dividend growth model also has its fair share of criticism. While some have hailed it as being indisputable and not subjective, recent academicians and practitioners have come up with arguments that make you believe the exact opposite. Recent studies have unearthed some glaring flaws in what was considered to be a perfect valuation model.
Required:
Identify and explain THREE (3) weaknesses of the dividend growth model as a way of valuing a company with shares. (6 marks)
Answer
b) The dividend growth model (DGM) is used widely in valuing ordinary shares and
hence in valuing companies, but there are a number of weaknesses associated with
its use.
- The future dividend growth rate
The DGM is based on the assumption that the future dividend growth rate is
constant, but experience shows that a constant dividend growth rate is, in reality,
very rare. This may be seen as less of a problem if the future dividend growth rate
is regarded as an average growth rate. Estimating the future dividend growth rate
is very difficult in practice and the DGM is very sensitive to small changes in this
key variable. It is common practice to estimate the future dividend growth rate by
calculating the historical dividend growth, but the assumption that the future will
reflect the past is an easy one to challenge. - The cost of equity
The DGM assumes that the future cost of equity is constant, when in reality it
changes quite frequently. The cost of equity can be calculated using the capital
asset pricing model, but this model usually employs historical information, which
may not reflect accurately expectations about the future. - Zero dividends
It is sometimes claimed that the DGM cannot be used when no dividends are paid,
but this depends on whether dividends are expected in the future. If dividends are
forecast to be paid from a future date, the dividend growth model can be applied
at that point to calculate a share price, which can then be discounted to give the
current ex dividend share price. Only in the case where no dividends are paid and
no dividends are expected to be paid will the DGM have no application.
(3 points well explained @ 2 marks each = 6 marks)
- Tags: Corporate finance, Dividend growth model, Valuation
- Level: Level 2
- Topic: Business valuations, Dividend Policy
- Series: MAY 2019
- Uploader: Joseph